Planning ModelS/Energy Economic Models
planning models were designed to aid
utilities in analyzing various power
generation options. The planning models
were also developed to help assess
the benefits of improved utility technologies
and methods. The energy-economic model
was designed to help the US Government
analyze the effect of energy economic
required the implementation of specialized
active set simplex algorithms for
a new approach to modeling generation
capacity planning through a linear
program, the theory which was developed
by Jerry Bloom at EPRI. Constraints
referred as facet constraints, takes
into account the probabilistic nature
of outages through the use of an Equivalent
Load Duration Curve. The linear program
has an exponential number of constraints;
however, an observation by Bloom makes
it possible to solve the problem efficiently
in a practical environment. At SBSI,
we implemented Bloom’s specialized
algorithm with modifications and as
well as developed a robust approach
for PHASE I (i.e.,finding an initial
Strategic Interconnection Model.
This model was
developed by Lotus Consulting Group
for the Electric Power Research Institute
to help analyze the effects of interconnecting
two power systems with correlated
loads by an intertie of probabilistic
transfer capacity. The model is an
interactive computer model and is
implemented to run on an IBM PC. The
model can be used to analyze various
issues such as:
- The effect
of the size of the intertie on the
loss of load probability.
- The effect
of increasing or decreasing the
- The effect
of changing the load correlation.
– Utility Systems Analysis Model.
This commercial software package
was developed by Lotus Consulting
Group to help utilities examine various
demand and supply side alternatives.
The model is designed to run on the
IBM PC/XT. One of the founders of
SBSI helped in analyzing and developing
a fast probabilistic production costing
routine for use in USAM. Considerable
research went in the analysis and
implementation of the probabilistic
production costing routine. For example,
the speed and accuracy of the routine
was examined on a unit-by-unit and
block loading basis. The end result
is a fast, accurate method for performing
probabilistic production costing.
Benefit/Cost Analysis Spreadsheet Model.
This application was developed through
Lotus Consulting Group for the Electric
Institute to help assess the potential
benefits of improved utility technologies
and methods. The
application is based on the EPRI Regional
Systems approach. The implementation
is being done on the IBM PC using
the Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet software
package. The model will help analyze
EPRI R&D in the following areas:
availability (reliability) improvement.
heat rate (efficiency) improvement.
system losses reduction.
Generation Expansion Planning Model.
This model was designed to aid the
Boston Edison Company in deciding
which technologies to buy, and how
to use them, in order to satisfy the
demand for energy over a pre-specified
time horizon. The model is a nonlinear
optimization model, which can be used
to answer questions such as:
- How would
an increase in the cost of borrowing
money affect the decision to buy
- How would
the introduction of new technology
affect the decision of what generation
capacity to buy?
– Welfare Equilibrium Model
This was developed
by a team of Operations Research scientists
and Economists. PILOT is a large linear
programming model (approximately 700
constraints and 3000 variables) for
developing long run projections of
energy supply, energy demand, and
economic growth within an economic
framework of aggregate consumer welfare
maximization and competitive market
equilibrium. It is a dynamic, multi-sector
model with look-ahead capabilities.
It provides useful insight as well
as a detailed set of internally consistent
numbers required in any important
planning exercise. Some of the software
interfacing with this model was developed
to help analyze the model output and
to incorporate consumer “substitution”
functions and industry “production”
functions. Some of the issues considered
The effects of high energy availability
and low energy availability.
in the price of imported energy.